The Red Sox entered the offseason with just three pitchers likely slated for the rotation next year: Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, and Eduardo Rodriguez.
All three, however, come with questions. Who knows what the Sox will get out of the oft-injured Buchholz and the enigmatic Porcello?
For his part, Rodriguez can’t be counted on for 200 innings next year either. The 22-year-old threw a career-high 169 combined innings between Triple-A Pawtucket and Boston last season.
After their spotty performances in 2015, neither Joe Kelly or Wade Miley are guaranteed rotation spots, even though both are under contract.
Given the horrendous performance of the Boston rotation (which ranked 13th in the American League in ERA) last season, management needs to add at least a bona fide ace, and perhaps more, this winter.
The Sox could ultimately add two starters this offseason through free agency or trade.
David Price’s name keeps coming up in relation to the Sox, and multiple reports say the Sox will ultimately be the highest bidder for the lefty’s services.
But another name to consider is Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda, who recently asked his team, the Hiroshima Carp, to make him available to MLB clubs.
If Maeda is posted, it will require a fee of up to $20 million payable to the Carp just to negotiate with him (the fee is returned to teams that don’t sign him).
Following a rule change, the posting fee is a lot less cumbersome than it used to be.
The Red Sox famously paid $51,111,111.11 to the Siebu Lions in 2006 for the opportunity to offer Daisuke Matsuzaka a six-year, $52 million contract.
More recently, the Rangers paid a $51.7 million posting fee for Yu Darvish prior to the 2012 season. Then they gave the righty $60 million over six years.
The Yankees benefitted from the new $20 million maximum posting fee, and then signed Masahiro Tanaka for $155 million over seven years before the 2014 season.
Maeda will probably land a contract closer to Darvish’s.
Though he has never pitched in the majors, Maeda is projected as a No. 2 starter. One thing is certain; he is widely regarded as the best Japanese hurler since Darvish and Tanaka.
The lack of major league experience will surely make the 27-year-old Maeda less sought after than Price (age 30) or Zack Greinke (age 32) this offseason. Yet, he will still be prized.
Aside from the fact that he is younger than both, Maeda will also come a lot cheaper, despite the $20 million posting fee.
Though he won’t blow anyone away with a fastball that tops out at 93 mph, Meada throws two versions of the curveball, one of which drops down into the upper 60s, as well as a slider and a changeup that also register in the mid-60s.
A velocity range from the mid-60s to the low 90s should allow Maeda to fool more than enough big league hitters to be successful.
Maeda’s strength is his extraordinary control, having posted an excellent 1.9 BB/9 walk rate over his career.
MLB Trade Rumor’s Tim Dierkes ranked Maeda 14th on his list of the top fifty free agents, predicting that the Japanese star would command a total commitment (including the fee) of five years and $80 million.
The Red Sox can afford that, in addition to an ace, such as Price or Grienke.
Considering that Detroit just signed free agent Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year, $110 pact, Dierkes' projection for Maeda could be a steal.
Hiroshima’s general manager Kiyoaki Suzuki said that Maeda’s “request might be granted,” indicating that he’d likely “decide on a course of action around the end of next week.”
Maeda is under club control through 2017, and could be posted again next offseason.
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